KAUST scientists are developing models to predict extreme weather events like the 2009 Jeddah flood, which caused significant damage. Prof. Ibrahim Hoteit's team is using data from satellites, international sources, and local entities like PME and the Jeddah Municipality to build high-resolution models. The aim is to improve predictions of extreme rain events by one or two days and issue timely warnings. Why it matters: Improving extreme weather prediction is crucial for mitigating the impact of climate change in vulnerable regions like the GCC.
A KAUST report, in collaboration with AEON Collective and KAPSARC, warned of increasing flash floods in the Arabian Peninsula due to climate change. The report predicts a 33% increase in annual maximum rainfall by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. KAUST is supporting MEWA to improve dam management and flash flood warning systems, leveraging its data and supercomputing capabilities. Why it matters: The study highlights the urgent need for infrastructure adaptation and improved warning systems in the region to mitigate the increasing risk of climate-related disasters.
KAUST's HALO group launched a CubeSat in 2023 for high-precision Earth observation in the Gulf region, combining GNSS Reflectometry and hyperspectral sensing. The satellite monitors vegetation, soil, agriculture, and ecosystem health, providing detailed estimates of irrigation water use and vegetation health. The Extreme Statistics (XSTAT) research group at KAUST focuses on the mathematical modeling and prediction of extreme weather and climate events. Why it matters: These KAUST initiatives enhance climate resilience in the region through advanced monitoring, statistical modeling, and predictive capabilities.
MBZUAI researchers are developing an AI-powered tool for flood assessment using satellite data and computer vision, prompted by the recent extreme weather in the Gulf region. The prototype analyzes spatial satellite imagery from before and after the storm to detect changes and identify heavily impacted roads and critical infrastructure. The tool uses AI models, Sentinel-2 imagery, and OpenStreetMap data to locate affected areas and estimate water depth. Why it matters: This research offers a way to automate and improve rapid response to extreme weather events, providing local authorities with critical information for rescue, recovery, and future urban planning in the face of climate change.
MBZUAI Professor Fakhri Karray and colleagues from the University of Waterloo are using AI to forecast crop yields, focusing on the impact of extreme temperatures on California strawberry yields. The research uses historical climate and agricultural data to predict yields, addressing issues from 2023 when unusual weather caused a $100 million loss to the strawberry industry. Better predictions could benefit consumers, farmers, and the agricultural industry by improving pricing and supply chain management. Why it matters: This research can improve understanding of agricultural system vulnerabilities amid climate change and extreme weather.
The KAUST Supercomputing Core Lab (KSL) and the National Center of Meteorology (NCM) have been collaborating since 2016 to enhance weather forecasting capabilities in Saudi Arabia. KSL provides consultation, data storage, and computing time on the Shaheen II supercomputer to NCM. This collaboration has led to a significant increase in NCM's HPC facility computing capacity, from 10 to 380 TFLOPS, with ongoing work to reach 1.8 PFLOPS. Why it matters: This partnership strengthens Saudi Arabia's ability to provide accurate and timely weather forecasts, crucial for public safety, aviation, and national security, demonstrating the importance of HPC in addressing critical environmental challenges.
KAUST's Atmospheric and Climate Modeling group, led by Georgiy Stenchikov, is using high-resolution global and regional climate models to predict climate change in the Middle East, focusing on local atmospheric and oceanic processes. The group developed coupled regional atmospheric and oceanic models for the Red Sea, accounting for the climate effect of aerosols, especially dust, which is significant in the region. They found that dust strongly affects the Red Sea, causing high optical depth and solar cooling effect, particularly in the southern part, impacting energy balance and circulation. Why it matters: Improving regional climate models with specific attention to dust and aerosols is crucial for predicting and mitigating the environmental impacts of climate change in arid regions like the Middle East.
KAUST researchers found a 25-30% increase in winter rainfall in the eastern Arabian Peninsula since 1981, with a 10-20% decrease in the south and northeast. This change correlates with a shifting El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting sea surface temperatures and westerly winds. The study used rainfall data from the University of East Anglia and 39 stations across the peninsula from 1951-2010. Why it matters: Improved understanding of these climate drivers could enhance long-term rainfall predictions, benefiting agriculture and water resource management in this arid region.