A KAUST report, in collaboration with AEON Collective and KAPSARC, warned of increasing flash floods in the Arabian Peninsula due to climate change. The report predicts a 33% increase in annual maximum rainfall by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. KAUST is supporting MEWA to improve dam management and flash flood warning systems, leveraging its data and supercomputing capabilities. Why it matters: The study highlights the urgent need for infrastructure adaptation and improved warning systems in the region to mitigate the increasing risk of climate-related disasters.
KAUST, AEON Collective, and KAPSARC released a report during MENA Climate Week assessing climate change impacts in Saudi Arabia under a 3°C warming scenario. The report finds that Saudi Arabia is experiencing climate change at an accelerated pace, with potential temperature increases of up to 5.6°C by the end of the century. It highlights the need for policy choices and adaptation strategies to mitigate impacts on ecosystems, urban environments, and human health. Why it matters: This comprehensive analysis provides critical insights for Saudi Arabia to inform its climate policies and adaptation efforts, addressing challenges like coral bleaching, desert expansion, and increased health risks.
KAUST scientists are developing models to predict extreme weather events like the 2009 Jeddah flood, which caused significant damage. Prof. Ibrahim Hoteit's team is using data from satellites, international sources, and local entities like PME and the Jeddah Municipality to build high-resolution models. The aim is to improve predictions of extreme rain events by one or two days and issue timely warnings. Why it matters: Improving extreme weather prediction is crucial for mitigating the impact of climate change in vulnerable regions like the GCC.
KAUST researchers found a 25-30% increase in winter rainfall in the eastern Arabian Peninsula since 1981, with a 10-20% decrease in the south and northeast. This change correlates with a shifting El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting sea surface temperatures and westerly winds. The study used rainfall data from the University of East Anglia and 39 stations across the peninsula from 1951-2010. Why it matters: Improved understanding of these climate drivers could enhance long-term rainfall predictions, benefiting agriculture and water resource management in this arid region.
KAUST and international collaborators discovered that the Rub’ Al-Khali desert was once a vast lake and river system that supported grasslands and savannahs. The "Green Arabia" period, marked by heavy rainfall, facilitated the growth of a lake covering 1,100 km² with a depth of 42 meters, which overflowed and carved a 150 km valley. The research, published in Communications Earth & Environment, highlights the impact of climate cycles on landscapes and human societies. Why it matters: Understanding the past climate transformations in the Arabian Peninsula is crucial for predicting the consequences of current climate change and its impact on regional habitability.