KAUST researchers found a 25-30% increase in winter rainfall in the eastern Arabian Peninsula since 1981, with a 10-20% decrease in the south and northeast. This change correlates with a shifting El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting sea surface temperatures and westerly winds. The study used rainfall data from the University of East Anglia and 39 stations across the peninsula from 1951-2010. Why it matters: Improved understanding of these climate drivers could enhance long-term rainfall predictions, benefiting agriculture and water resource management in this arid region.
KAUST and international collaborators discovered that the Rub’ Al-Khali desert was once a vast lake and river system that supported grasslands and savannahs. The "Green Arabia" period, marked by heavy rainfall, facilitated the growth of a lake covering 1,100 km² with a depth of 42 meters, which overflowed and carved a 150 km valley. The research, published in Communications Earth & Environment, highlights the impact of climate cycles on landscapes and human societies. Why it matters: Understanding the past climate transformations in the Arabian Peninsula is crucial for predicting the consequences of current climate change and its impact on regional habitability.
A KAUST report, in collaboration with AEON Collective and KAPSARC, warned of increasing flash floods in the Arabian Peninsula due to climate change. The report predicts a 33% increase in annual maximum rainfall by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. KAUST is supporting MEWA to improve dam management and flash flood warning systems, leveraging its data and supercomputing capabilities. Why it matters: The study highlights the urgent need for infrastructure adaptation and improved warning systems in the region to mitigate the increasing risk of climate-related disasters.
KAUST and the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) have signed agreements to create two new climate centers in Saudi Arabia. The centers are named The National Center for Climate Change, and the Regional Sand and Dust Storms Early Warning and Advisory Center. KAUST will assist NCM in developing web-based publishing software and climate models, in cooperation with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the USA. Why it matters: The new centers will provide crucial tools and information for mitigating the negative effects of climate change in Saudi Arabia and the broader MENA region.
KAUST's Atmospheric and Climate Modeling group, led by Georgiy Stenchikov, is using high-resolution global and regional climate models to predict climate change in the Middle East, focusing on local atmospheric and oceanic processes. The group developed coupled regional atmospheric and oceanic models for the Red Sea, accounting for the climate effect of aerosols, especially dust, which is significant in the region. They found that dust strongly affects the Red Sea, causing high optical depth and solar cooling effect, particularly in the southern part, impacting energy balance and circulation. Why it matters: Improving regional climate models with specific attention to dust and aerosols is crucial for predicting and mitigating the environmental impacts of climate change in arid regions like the Middle East.