arXiv ·
This paper introduces a novel fuzzy clustering method for circular time series based on a new dependence measure that considers circular arcs. The algorithm groups series generated from similar stochastic processes and demonstrates computational efficiency. The method is applied to time series of wind direction in Saudi Arabia, showcasing its practical potential.
arXiv ·
The paper introduces TimeHUT, a new method for learning time-series representations using hierarchical uniformity-tolerance balancing of contrastive representations. TimeHUT employs a hierarchical setup to learn both instance-wise and temporal information, along with a temperature scheduler to balance uniformity and tolerance. The method was evaluated on UCR, UAE, Yahoo, and KPI datasets, demonstrating superior performance in classification tasks and competitive results in anomaly detection.
KAUST ·
KAUST alumna Yuan Yan received an honorable mention from the American Statistical Association (ASA) for her paper on "Vector Autoregressive Models with Spatially Structured Coefficients for Time Series on a Spatial Grid." Yan, who graduated from KAUST in 2018, was part of Professor Marc Genton's Spatio-Temporal Statistics & Data Science group. She is now a postdoctoral fellow at Dalhousie University, researching fisheries science using spatial statistical models. Why it matters: This recognition highlights the quality of research and education at KAUST, especially in the field of spatio-temporal statistics, and its impact on addressing real-world sustainability challenges.
arXiv ·
The paper proposes a method for causal inference using satellite image time series to determine the impact of interventions on climate change, focusing on quantifying deforestation due to human causes. The method uses computer vision and deep learning to detect forest tree coverage levels over time and Bayesian structural causal models to estimate counterfactuals. The framework is applied to analyze deforestation levels before and after the hyperinflation event in Brazil in the Amazon rainforest region.
MBZUAI ·
A presentation will demonstrate the construction of well-calibrated, distribution-free neural Temporal Point Process (TPP) models from multiple event sequences using conformal prediction. The method builds a distribution-free joint prediction region for event arrival time and type with a finite-sample coverage guarantee. The refined method is based on the highest density regions, derived from the joint predictive density of event arrival time and type to address the challenge of creating a joint prediction region for a bivariate response that includes both continuous and discrete data types. Why it matters: This research from a KAUST postdoc improves uncertainty quantification in neural TPPs, which are crucial for modeling continuous-time event sequences, with applications in various fields, by providing more reliable prediction regions.
arXiv ·
A novel wind speed forecasting (WSF) framework is proposed combining Wavelet Packet Decomposition (WPD), Seasonal Adjustment Method (SAM), and Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (BiLSTM). The SAM method eliminates the seasonal component of the decomposed subseries generated by WPD to reduce forecasting complexity. The model was tested on five years of hourly wind speed observations acquired from the Dumat Al-Jandal wind farm in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia, achieving high forecasting accuracy.