A presentation will demonstrate the construction of well-calibrated, distribution-free neural Temporal Point Process (TPP) models from multiple event sequences using conformal prediction. The method builds a distribution-free joint prediction region for event arrival time and type with a finite-sample coverage guarantee. The refined method is based on the highest density regions, derived from the joint predictive density of event arrival time and type to address the challenge of creating a joint prediction region for a bivariate response that includes both continuous and discrete data types. Why it matters: This research from a KAUST postdoc improves uncertainty quantification in neural TPPs, which are crucial for modeling continuous-time event sequences, with applications in various fields, by providing more reliable prediction regions.
This paper introduces neural Bayes estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models, enhancing computational efficiency in spatial extremal dependence modeling. The method uses data augmentation to encode censoring information in the neural network input, challenging traditional likelihood-based approaches. The estimators were applied to assess extreme particulate matter concentrations over Saudi Arabia, demonstrating efficacy in high-dimensional models. Why it matters: The research offers a computationally efficient alternative for environmental modeling and risk assessment in the region.
The paper introduces TimeHUT, a new method for learning time-series representations using hierarchical uniformity-tolerance balancing of contrastive representations. TimeHUT employs a hierarchical setup to learn both instance-wise and temporal information, along with a temperature scheduler to balance uniformity and tolerance. The method was evaluated on UCR, UAE, Yahoo, and KPI datasets, demonstrating superior performance in classification tasks and competitive results in anomaly detection.
Researchers introduce CESAR, a convolutional echo state autoencoder for high-resolution wind forecasting. The model extracts spatial features using a deep convolutional autoencoder and models their dynamics with an echo state network. Tested on high-resolution simulations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, CESAR improved wind speed and power forecasting by up to 17% compared to other methods. Why it matters: Accurate wind forecasting is critical for efficient wind farm planning and management in Saudi Arabia and the broader region.
This paper analyzes the impact of device uncertainties on deep neural networks (DNNs) in emerging device-based Computing-in-memory (CiM) systems. The authors propose UAE, an uncertainty-aware Neural Architecture Search scheme, to identify DNN models robust to these uncertainties. The goal is to mitigate accuracy drops when deploying trained models on real-world platforms.