arXiv ·
Researchers studied user lifetime prediction in the location-based social network Jodel within Saudi Arabia, leveraging its disjoint communities. Machine learning models, particularly Random Forest, were trained to predict user lifetime as a regression and classification problem. A single countrywide model generalizes well and performs similarly to community-specific models.
KAUST ·
KAUST researchers developed a new model integrating SIR compartment modeling in time and a point process modeling approach in space-time, also considering age-specific contact patterns. They used a two-step framework to model infectious locations over time for different age groups. The model demonstrated improved predictive accuracy in simulations and a COVID-19 case study in Cali, Colombia, compared to existing models. Why it matters: This model can assist decision-makers in identifying high-risk locations and vulnerable populations for better disease control strategies in the region and globally.
arXiv ·
This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 spread and weather patterns across 89 cities in Saudi Arabia using machine learning. The study uses daily COVID-19 case reports from the Saudi Ministry of Health and historical weather data. The results indicate that temperature and wind speed have the strongest correlation with the spread of COVID-19, with a random forest model achieving the best performance.
MBZUAI ·
Researchers at MBZUAI have developed a new machine learning method called survival rank-n-contrast (SurvRNC) to improve survival models for cancer prognoses. The method is designed to predict survival times for head and neck cancer patients using multimodal data while accounting for censored data (missing values). Numan Saeed presented the team’s work at the 27th International Conference on Medical Image Computing and Computer Assisted Intervention (MICCAI). Why it matters: Accurate prognoses can significantly improve patient outcomes, and this research contributes to advancements in machine learning techniques for handling complex and incomplete medical data.
arXiv ·
This paper introduces neural Bayes estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models, enhancing computational efficiency in spatial extremal dependence modeling. The method uses data augmentation to encode censoring information in the neural network input, challenging traditional likelihood-based approaches. The estimators were applied to assess extreme particulate matter concentrations over Saudi Arabia, demonstrating efficacy in high-dimensional models. Why it matters: The research offers a computationally efficient alternative for environmental modeling and risk assessment in the region.
arXiv ·
This paper introduces Diffusion-BBO, a new online black-box optimization (BBO) framework that uses a conditional diffusion model as an inverse surrogate model. The framework employs an Uncertainty-aware Exploration (UaE) acquisition function to propose scores in the objective space for conditional sampling. The approach is shown theoretically to achieve a near-optimal solution and empirically outperforms existing online BBO baselines across 6 scientific discovery tasks.
KAUST ·
KAUST researchers from statistics and earth science collaborated to improve earthquake source modeling. They developed a statistical ranking tool to classify 2D fields, applicable to geoscience models like temperature or precipitation. The tool helps compare different 2D fields describing the earthquake source process and quantify inter-event variability. Why it matters: This cross-disciplinary approach enhances the reliability of earthquake rupture models, contributing to better hazard assessment and risk management in seismically active regions.