A KAUST-led study published in Scientific Data provides updated global climate classification maps from 1901-2020 and projects future conditions up to 2099. Researchers used a refined selection of climate models, excluding those with unrealistic CO2-induced warming rates, to ensure accuracy. Projections indicate significant shifts in land surface climate, with large areas transitioning to warmer climate zones by the end of the century under moderate emission scenarios. Why it matters: The updated maps provide a crucial tool for understanding climate change impacts, ecological studies, and informing policy decisions in the face of global warming, especially for a region like the Middle East that is highly vulnerable to climate change.
This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 spread and weather patterns across 89 cities in Saudi Arabia using machine learning. The study uses daily COVID-19 case reports from the Saudi Ministry of Health and historical weather data. The results indicate that temperature and wind speed have the strongest correlation with the spread of COVID-19, with a random forest model achieving the best performance.
KAUST's Atmospheric and Climate Modeling group, led by Georgiy Stenchikov, is using high-resolution global and regional climate models to predict climate change in the Middle East, focusing on local atmospheric and oceanic processes. The group developed coupled regional atmospheric and oceanic models for the Red Sea, accounting for the climate effect of aerosols, especially dust, which is significant in the region. They found that dust strongly affects the Red Sea, causing high optical depth and solar cooling effect, particularly in the southern part, impacting energy balance and circulation. Why it matters: Improving regional climate models with specific attention to dust and aerosols is crucial for predicting and mitigating the environmental impacts of climate change in arid regions like the Middle East.
KAUST researchers found a 25-30% increase in winter rainfall in the eastern Arabian Peninsula since 1981, with a 10-20% decrease in the south and northeast. This change correlates with a shifting El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting sea surface temperatures and westerly winds. The study used rainfall data from the University of East Anglia and 39 stations across the peninsula from 1951-2010. Why it matters: Improved understanding of these climate drivers could enhance long-term rainfall predictions, benefiting agriculture and water resource management in this arid region.
A KAUST-led study analyzed the impact of natural forests on local temperatures across the globe, finding that forests provide the greatest climate benefits when conserved or restored in their native locations. The analysis showed that forests generally have net global cooling effects in areas where dense tree cover would naturally exist. The research highlights that forests buffer against extreme temperatures, providing warming effects in freezing areas and cooling effects in warm regions. Why it matters: The findings emphasize the importance of regional scientific evidence in guiding land-use and restoration decisions, ensuring effective and sustainable nature-based solutions in the face of climate change.
KAUST and the National Center for Meteorology (NCM) have signed agreements to create two new climate centers in Saudi Arabia. The centers are named The National Center for Climate Change, and the Regional Sand and Dust Storms Early Warning and Advisory Center. KAUST will assist NCM in developing web-based publishing software and climate models, in cooperation with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the USA. Why it matters: The new centers will provide crucial tools and information for mitigating the negative effects of climate change in Saudi Arabia and the broader MENA region.
A KAUST-led study analyzing over 100 years of satellite data indicates that Red Sea surface temperatures may be cooling rather than rising due to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The research, utilizing KAUST's supercomputer Shaheen II, suggests a cooling phase in the coming decades that could temporarily counter global warming effects. The team collaborated with researchers from the University of Athens and the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, using data from NOAA, NASA, and the UK Met Office. Why it matters: The finding challenges assumptions about uniform warming trends and highlights the role of natural climate oscillations in modulating regional temperature changes, informing more accurate climate modeling and adaptation strategies for the region.