A novel wind speed forecasting (WSF) framework is proposed combining Wavelet Packet Decomposition (WPD), Seasonal Adjustment Method (SAM), and Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (BiLSTM). The SAM method eliminates the seasonal component of the decomposed subseries generated by WPD to reduce forecasting complexity. The model was tested on five years of hourly wind speed observations acquired from the Dumat Al-Jandal wind farm in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia, achieving high forecasting accuracy.
MBZUAI Professor Agathe Guilloux developed the SigLasso model to forecast hospitalizations using real-time data from Google and Météo France during the COVID-19 pandemic. The model integrates mobility data and weather patterns to predict hospitalization rates 10-14 days in advance. SigLasso outperformed industry standards like GRU and Neural CDE in reducing reconstruction error. Why it matters: This research demonstrates the potential of AI to improve healthcare resource allocation and crisis management by accurately predicting patient flow using readily available data.
A KAUST research team is using cellphone mobility data, Google searches, and social media to model and predict COVID-19 spread. The models aim to forecast cases in the coming weeks and inform resource allocation, including hospital beds and medical staff. The team is using aggregated and anonymized data from cellphone companies to respect people's privacy. Why it matters: Integrating real-time digital data with epidemiological modeling can improve the speed and effectiveness of public health responses in the region and globally.
KAUST Professor Hernando Ombao is leading the Biostatistics Group to develop statistical models for projecting hospitalization surges during the COVID-19 pandemic. The group uses techniques like time series analysis and stationary subspace analysis to understand complex biological processes. The models aim to provide public health officials with accurate hospitalization estimates under varying scenarios. Why it matters: This research contributes to preparedness and resource allocation in healthcare systems during public health crises, with potential applications beyond COVID-19.
A presentation will demonstrate the construction of well-calibrated, distribution-free neural Temporal Point Process (TPP) models from multiple event sequences using conformal prediction. The method builds a distribution-free joint prediction region for event arrival time and type with a finite-sample coverage guarantee. The refined method is based on the highest density regions, derived from the joint predictive density of event arrival time and type to address the challenge of creating a joint prediction region for a bivariate response that includes both continuous and discrete data types. Why it matters: This research from a KAUST postdoc improves uncertainty quantification in neural TPPs, which are crucial for modeling continuous-time event sequences, with applications in various fields, by providing more reliable prediction regions.
A new Bayesian matrix factorization approach is explored for performance prediction in multilingual NLP, aiming to reduce the experimental burden of evaluating various language combinations. The approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods in NLP benchmarks like machine translation and cross-lingual entity linking. It also avoids hyperparameter tuning and provides uncertainty estimates over predictions. Why it matters: Accurate performance prediction methods accelerate multilingual NLP research by reducing computational costs and improving experimental efficiency, especially valuable for Arabic NLP tasks.