A KAUST-led study published in Scientific Data provides updated global climate classification maps from 1901-2020 and projects future conditions up to 2099. Researchers used a refined selection of climate models, excluding those with unrealistic CO2-induced warming rates, to ensure accuracy. Projections indicate significant shifts in land surface climate, with large areas transitioning to warmer climate zones by the end of the century under moderate emission scenarios. Why it matters: The updated maps provide a crucial tool for understanding climate change impacts, ecological studies, and informing policy decisions in the face of global warming, especially for a region like the Middle East that is highly vulnerable to climate change.
This paper examines the relationship between COVID-19 spread and weather patterns across 89 cities in Saudi Arabia using machine learning. The study uses daily COVID-19 case reports from the Saudi Ministry of Health and historical weather data. The results indicate that temperature and wind speed have the strongest correlation with the spread of COVID-19, with a random forest model achieving the best performance.
KAUST's Atmospheric and Climate Modeling group, led by Georgiy Stenchikov, is using high-resolution global and regional climate models to predict climate change in the Middle East, focusing on local atmospheric and oceanic processes. The group developed coupled regional atmospheric and oceanic models for the Red Sea, accounting for the climate effect of aerosols, especially dust, which is significant in the region. They found that dust strongly affects the Red Sea, causing high optical depth and solar cooling effect, particularly in the southern part, impacting energy balance and circulation. Why it matters: Improving regional climate models with specific attention to dust and aerosols is crucial for predicting and mitigating the environmental impacts of climate change in arid regions like the Middle East.
KAUST researchers found a 25-30% increase in winter rainfall in the eastern Arabian Peninsula since 1981, with a 10-20% decrease in the south and northeast. This change correlates with a shifting El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting sea surface temperatures and westerly winds. The study used rainfall data from the University of East Anglia and 39 stations across the peninsula from 1951-2010. Why it matters: Improved understanding of these climate drivers could enhance long-term rainfall predictions, benefiting agriculture and water resource management in this arid region.
The Global Water Monitor Consortium, including KAUST, released its 2023 report, finding that 77 of 249 countries experienced record-high temperatures. Saudi Arabia had its third-hottest year but highest precipitation in 20 years. Vegetation vigor in Saudi Arabia was also the highest since 2001, almost 8% higher than the long-term average. Why it matters: The report highlights climate change impacts in Saudi Arabia, emphasizing the need for accessible information on water resources for stakeholders and the potential for increased vegetation due to higher rainfall.
MBZUAI is developing AI-powered applications to help reduce malaria's impact in Indonesia, supported by Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan's Reaching the Last Mile initiative. The applications use sensory data fusion to create "digital twins" for precise weather forecasting and real-time environmental representation. AI and clustering analysis identify recurring features contributing to malaria outbreaks, enabling preventative measures and early treatment. Why it matters: This project demonstrates AI's potential in combating climate-sensitive diseases and improving public health in vulnerable regions.
IBM and MBZUAI have partnered to create an AI Center of Excellence, with the goal of driving sustainability in the region. The center will use AI to monitor, model, and visualize climate change, providing decision-makers with data to address issues like the urban heat island effect. Dr. Fahad Khan, Dr. Salman Khan, and Dr. Levente Klein from MBZUAI are leading the research. Why it matters: This collaboration highlights the UAE's commitment to using AI to tackle critical climate challenges and supports the upcoming COP28 in Dubai.
A KAUST-led study analyzing over 100 years of satellite data indicates that Red Sea surface temperatures may be cooling rather than rising due to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The research, utilizing KAUST's supercomputer Shaheen II, suggests a cooling phase in the coming decades that could temporarily counter global warming effects. The team collaborated with researchers from the University of Athens and the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, using data from NOAA, NASA, and the UK Met Office. Why it matters: The finding challenges assumptions about uniform warming trends and highlights the role of natural climate oscillations in modulating regional temperature changes, informing more accurate climate modeling and adaptation strategies for the region.