KAUST's Stochastic Numerics Research Group is developing methods for pricing European options. Their approach, detailed in an upcoming Journal of Computational Finance article, focuses on systematically tuning parameters to achieve accuracy while minimizing computational effort. The goal is to enable automated computation of fair prices for options contracts, similar to how insurance companies determine premiums. Why it matters: This research advances computational finance in the region, potentially improving risk management and investment strategies.
KAUST Ph.D. student Chiheb Ben Hammouda won the best poster award at the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics Conference on Financial Mathematics & Engineering (FM19) for his work on option pricing under the rough Bergomi model. The winning poster, titled "Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi-Monte Carlo for option pricing under the rough Bergomi model," details research carried out under the supervision of KAUST Professor Raul Tempone. The research group designed new efficient numerical methods for pricing derivatives under the rough Bergomi model by combining smoothing techniques. Why it matters: This award highlights KAUST's growing expertise in financial mathematics and its contribution to solving complex problems in the field using advanced numerical methods.
KAUST Professor Peter Markowich discusses the role of mathematics in football, describing a match as a random process with a drift. The randomness stems from player conditions, referee decisions, weather, and more, while the drift represents the higher probability of the better team winning. He notes that the complexity arising from 11 players on each side increases the randomness compared to sports like tennis. Why it matters: This perspective highlights the interplay of chance and skill in sports, offering a mathematical lens for understanding game dynamics.
Researchers propose a spatio-temporal model for high-resolution wind forecasting in Saudi Arabia using Echo State Networks and stochastic partial differential equations. The model reduces spatial information via energy distance, captures dynamics with a sparse recurrent neural network, and reconstructs data using a non-stationary stochastic partial differential equation approach. The model achieves more accurate forecasts of wind speed and energy, potentially saving up to one million dollars annually compared to existing models.
KAUST Professor Raul Tempone, an expert in Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), has been appointed as an Alexander von Humboldt Professor at RWTH Aachen University in Germany. This professorship will enable him to further his research on mathematics for uncertainty quantification with new collaborators. Tempone believes the KAUST Strategic Initiative for Uncertainty Quantification (SRI-UQ) contributed to this award. Why it matters: This appointment enhances KAUST's visibility and facilitates cross-fertilization between European and KAUST research groups, benefiting both institutions and attracting talent.
KAUST hosted the Advances in Uncertainty Quantification Methods, Algorithms and Applications conference (UQAW2016) in January 2016. The event featured 75 presentations and 20 invited speakers from various countries. Professor Raul Tempone presented research on computational approaches to fouling accumulation and wear degradation using stochastic differential equations. Why it matters: This work provides a new computational approach based on stochastic differential equations to predict fouling patterns of heat exchangers which can optimize maintenance operations and reduce engine shut-down periods.
A novel wind speed forecasting (WSF) framework is proposed combining Wavelet Packet Decomposition (WPD), Seasonal Adjustment Method (SAM), and Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (BiLSTM). The SAM method eliminates the seasonal component of the decomposed subseries generated by WPD to reduce forecasting complexity. The model was tested on five years of hourly wind speed observations acquired from the Dumat Al-Jandal wind farm in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia, achieving high forecasting accuracy.
This paper introduces DaringFed, a novel dynamic Bayesian persuasion pricing mechanism for online federated learning (OFL) that addresses the challenge of two-sided incomplete information (TII) regarding resources. It formulates the interaction between the server and clients as a dynamic signaling and pricing allocation problem within a Bayesian persuasion game, demonstrating the existence of a unique Bayesian persuasion Nash equilibrium. Evaluations on real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that DaringFed optimizes accuracy and convergence speed and improves the server's utility.