Researchers propose a spatio-temporal model for high-resolution wind forecasting in Saudi Arabia using Echo State Networks and stochastic partial differential equations. The model reduces spatial information via energy distance, captures dynamics with a sparse recurrent neural network, and reconstructs data using a non-stationary stochastic partial differential equation approach. The model achieves more accurate forecasts of wind speed and energy, potentially saving up to one million dollars annually compared to existing models.
Researchers introduce CESAR, a convolutional echo state autoencoder for high-resolution wind forecasting. The model extracts spatial features using a deep convolutional autoencoder and models their dynamics with an echo state network. Tested on high-resolution simulations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, CESAR improved wind speed and power forecasting by up to 17% compared to other methods. Why it matters: Accurate wind forecasting is critical for efficient wind farm planning and management in Saudi Arabia and the broader region.
A novel wind speed forecasting (WSF) framework is proposed combining Wavelet Packet Decomposition (WPD), Seasonal Adjustment Method (SAM), and Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory (BiLSTM). The SAM method eliminates the seasonal component of the decomposed subseries generated by WPD to reduce forecasting complexity. The model was tested on five years of hourly wind speed observations acquired from the Dumat Al-Jandal wind farm in Al-Jouf, Saudi Arabia, achieving high forecasting accuracy.
This paper introduces neural Bayes estimators for censored peaks-over-threshold models, enhancing computational efficiency in spatial extremal dependence modeling. The method uses data augmentation to encode censoring information in the neural network input, challenging traditional likelihood-based approaches. The estimators were applied to assess extreme particulate matter concentrations over Saudi Arabia, demonstrating efficacy in high-dimensional models. Why it matters: The research offers a computationally efficient alternative for environmental modeling and risk assessment in the region.
This paper introduces a deep vision-based framework for predicting coastal floods under climate change, addressing the challenges of limited training data and high-dimensional output. The framework employs and compares various deep learning models, including a custom compact CNN architecture, against geostatistical and traditional machine learning methods. A new synthetic dataset of flood inundation maps for Abu Dhabi's coast is also provided to benchmark future models.