KAUST's Atmospheric and Climate Modeling group, led by Georgiy Stenchikov, is using high-resolution global and regional climate models to predict climate change in the Middle East, focusing on local atmospheric and oceanic processes. The group developed coupled regional atmospheric and oceanic models for the Red Sea, accounting for the climate effect of aerosols, especially dust, which is significant in the region. They found that dust strongly affects the Red Sea, causing high optical depth and solar cooling effect, particularly in the southern part, impacting energy balance and circulation. Why it matters: Improving regional climate models with specific attention to dust and aerosols is crucial for predicting and mitigating the environmental impacts of climate change in arid regions like the Middle East.
KAUST has been awarded the ACM Gordon Bell Prize for Climate Modelling, considered the "Nobel" of high-performance computing, for their work on exascale climate emulators. The winning paper, a collaborative effort with institutions including the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, addresses the computational and storage demands of high-resolution earth system models. The KAUST team included Sameh Abdulah, Marc G. Genton, David E. Keyes, and others. Why it matters: This is the first time an institution in the Middle East has won the prize, highlighting KAUST's leadership in high-performance computing and climate research in the region.
KAUST researchers are studying ancient supervolcanoes, like the Toba eruption 75,000 years ago, to understand current and future climate conditions. Volcanic eruptions serve as natural experiments that push the climate system to its limits, helping scientists understand climate's physical mechanisms. Research shows that volcanic eruptions delayed global warming by about 30% starting from 1850. Why it matters: Understanding the impact of volcanic activity on climate change can improve predictions of future global warming, particularly in regions like the Middle East which are strongly affected by volcanic events.
A KAUST-led international team has published research detailing the potential of marine-based solutions to combat climate change. The study assesses the effectiveness of 13 ocean-based measures, including reducing greenhouse gas concentrations and protecting marine ecosystems. The research will inform decision-makers at COP24. Why it matters: Highlighting the potential of ocean-based solutions can broaden the scope of climate action strategies in the region, where coastal environments and marine resources are vital.
KAUST's HALO group launched a CubeSat in 2023 for high-precision Earth observation in the Gulf region, combining GNSS Reflectometry and hyperspectral sensing. The satellite monitors vegetation, soil, agriculture, and ecosystem health, providing detailed estimates of irrigation water use and vegetation health. The Extreme Statistics (XSTAT) research group at KAUST focuses on the mathematical modeling and prediction of extreme weather and climate events. Why it matters: These KAUST initiatives enhance climate resilience in the region through advanced monitoring, statistical modeling, and predictive capabilities.
A KAUST-led study published in Scientific Data provides updated global climate classification maps from 1901-2020 and projects future conditions up to 2099. Researchers used a refined selection of climate models, excluding those with unrealistic CO2-induced warming rates, to ensure accuracy. Projections indicate significant shifts in land surface climate, with large areas transitioning to warmer climate zones by the end of the century under moderate emission scenarios. Why it matters: The updated maps provide a crucial tool for understanding climate change impacts, ecological studies, and informing policy decisions in the face of global warming, especially for a region like the Middle East that is highly vulnerable to climate change.
A KAUST-led study analyzing over 100 years of satellite data indicates that Red Sea surface temperatures may be cooling rather than rising due to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The research, utilizing KAUST's supercomputer Shaheen II, suggests a cooling phase in the coming decades that could temporarily counter global warming effects. The team collaborated with researchers from the University of Athens and the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, using data from NOAA, NASA, and the UK Met Office. Why it matters: The finding challenges assumptions about uniform warming trends and highlights the role of natural climate oscillations in modulating regional temperature changes, informing more accurate climate modeling and adaptation strategies for the region.
KAUST scientists are developing models to predict extreme weather events like the 2009 Jeddah flood, which caused significant damage. Prof. Ibrahim Hoteit's team is using data from satellites, international sources, and local entities like PME and the Jeddah Municipality to build high-resolution models. The aim is to improve predictions of extreme rain events by one or two days and issue timely warnings. Why it matters: Improving extreme weather prediction is crucial for mitigating the impact of climate change in vulnerable regions like the GCC.